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Maurizio-Cavaliere
Sep 04 2018

TAT FX Brief: Sep18

News & Insights
TAT FX Brief: Sep18
<h2>U.S. second-quarter GDP growth raised to 4.2 percent</h2> <blockquote> <p>RBA left cash rate unchanged to 1.5%</p> </blockquote> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/USD</strong></li> </ul> <p>The U.S. economy grew at a strong 4.2 percent annual rate in the 2nd quarter:&nbsp;the best showing in nearly four&nbsp;years!&nbsp;</p> <p>Economists expect growth to slow to a still solid 3 percent annual rate for the rest of the year.</p> <p>The&nbsp;Australian dollar is very weak on the back of renewed doubts - of&nbsp;if and when the RBA will begin to lift official&nbsp;interest rates.&nbsp;We remain bearish on AUD: we might see prices below 0.72 vs&nbsp;USD, and any bounce is a good opportunity&nbsp;to sell AUD. 0.7150 will be an important technical area, and below this area we might see the rate at 0.70.</p> <p><img alt="US GDP Growth" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2018/09/US-GDP.jpg " /></p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/EUR</strong></li> </ul> <p>The Australian Dollar has been sold on Australian political uncertainties and bearish Central Bank speculation!&nbsp;</p> <p>The biggest news this week for EUR/AUD was Wednesday&rsquo;s surprise news that Westpac would hike its&nbsp;Australian variable home loans rate, which dampened Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike bets. It worsened concerns that other Australian banks may follow suit, and pressure the RBA to leave Australia&rsquo;s&nbsp;core monetary policy frozen for longer, in order to accommodate the changes.</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/GBP</strong></li> </ul> <p>The UK construction sector has failed to make consistent growth in recent years, but the manufacturing and&nbsp;services sectors have shown greater consistency. The services reading is the most important of the three, as&nbsp;the sector is the single largest contributor to UK economic growth.</p> <p>If the services sector grows by forecast, or above expectations, then the GBP/AUD exchange rate could rise sharply.</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/CNY</strong></li> </ul> <p>We are expecting a correction towards area 4.95/4.90, and we remain slightly bullish on AUD.&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;Manufacturing PMI will be an important data for Chinese economy.&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/INR</strong></li> </ul> <p>Trading range for AUD/INR: We do not expect big movement for next months on AUD/INR with a trading&nbsp;range between 50 and 52.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Major events/data this month:</strong></p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Monday, September 3, 2018</strong></p> <p>11:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;AUD&nbsp;Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) &nbsp;</p> <p>11:45 &nbsp;&nbsp;CNY&nbsp;Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p>17:55 &nbsp;&nbsp;EUR German Manufacturing PMI&nbsp;(Aug)</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP&nbsp;Manufacturing PMI (Aug) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Tuesday, September 4, 2018</strong></p> <p>14:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision&nbsp;(Sep)</p> <p>14:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;AUD&nbsp;RBA Rate Statement&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP&nbsp;Construction PMI (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p><br /> <strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Wednesday, September 5, 2018</strong></p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p>11:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;AUD&nbsp;GDP (QoQ) (Q2) &nbsp;</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP&nbsp;Services PMI (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Thursday, September 6, 2018</strong></p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;CAD&nbsp;BoC Interest Rate Decision &nbsp;</p> <p>22:15 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD ADP Nonfarm Employment&nbsp;Change (Aug)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Friday, September 7, 2018</strong><br /> 00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI&nbsp;(Aug)</p> <p>01:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;Crude Oil Inventories &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;Unemployment Rate (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;CAD&nbsp;Employment Change (Aug) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Saturday, September 8, 2018</strong></p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;CAD&nbsp;Ivey PMI (Aug) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Monday, September 10, 2018</strong></p> <p>09:50 &nbsp;&nbsp;JPY&nbsp;GDP (QoQ) (Q2) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM)&nbsp;(Jul)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Tuesday, September 11, 2018</strong><br /> 18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus&nbsp;(Jul)</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP&nbsp;Claimant Count Change (Aug) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>19:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;EUR German ZEW Economic&nbsp;Sentiment (Sep)</p> <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Wednesday, September 12, 2018</strong></p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;JOLTs Job Openings (Jul) &nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;PPI (MoM) (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Thursday, September 13, 2018</strong></p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday&nbsp;India - Ganesh Chaturthi</p> <p>11:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;AUD&nbsp;Employment Change (Aug) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>21:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP&nbsp;BoE Interest Rate Decision (Sep) &nbsp;</p> <p>21:45 &nbsp;&nbsp;EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision&nbsp;(Sep)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p><br /> <strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Friday, September 14, 2018</strong></p> <p>12:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;CNY&nbsp;Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p>20:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;RUB&nbsp;Interest Rate Decision (Sep) &nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Monday, September 17, 2018</strong></p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday&nbsp;Japan - Respect for the Aged Day</p> <p>19:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;EUR&nbsp;CPI (YoY) (Aug) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Wednesday, September 19, 2018</strong></p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP&nbsp;CPI (YoY) (Aug) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;Building Permits (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Thursday, September 20, 2018</strong></p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday&nbsp;India - Moharram</p> <p>08:45 &nbsp;&nbsp;NZD&nbsp;GDP (QoQ) (Q2) &nbsp;</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP&nbsp;Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing&nbsp;Index (Sep)</p> <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Friday, September 21, 2018</strong></p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;Existing Home Sales (Aug) &nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Sunday, September 23, 2018</strong></p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday&nbsp;Japan - Autumn Equinox</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Monday, September 24, 2018</strong></p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday&nbsp;Japan - Holiday</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday&nbsp;China - Mid-Autumn Festival</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Tuesday, September 25, 2018</strong></p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday&nbsp;Hong Kong - The day following the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Thursday, September 27, 2018</strong></p> <p>04:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD&nbsp;Fed Interest Rate Decision&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="font-size:8px">Source:&nbsp;Economic Calendar -&nbsp;<a href="https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/" target="_blank">investing.com</a></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Useful links:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://tat.capital/Home/FX" target="_blank">Setup FX Account</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bizcurrency1.com/GPWeb/Pages/General/Login.aspx?Style=TAT" target="_blank">FX Login</a></p> <p><a href="https://tat.capital/Blogs/Permalink/how-to-choose-an-fx-broker" target="_blank">How to choose an FX broker for your business</a></p>

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