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Andro Matugas-Barnes
May 01 2019

TAT FX Brief: May19

News & Insights
TAT FX Brief: May19
<p>The AUD fell against all the major crosses yesterday, undermined by the release of disappointing Chinese PMI data during the session. The weakness came despite renewed softness in the USD ahead of the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s interest rate decision that will arrive later in today&rsquo;s session.</p> <p>The chief catalyst for the AUD&#39;s weakness was the release of&nbsp;Chinese manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs&nbsp;for April, which eased lower after a strong lift in March. While both readings remain above the levels seen earlier this year, the modest reversal cast renewed doubt over the prospects for a sustained improvement in the Chinese economy in the months ahead, weighing on the AUD as a result of the strong economic ties between the two nations.</p> <p>The AUD/USD lost around 40 pips following the release of the data, before stabilising in the latter parts of the session as the USD softened. Adjustments to positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s interest rate decision that will arrive in the early hours tomorrow morning on is one factor behind the greenback&rsquo;s weakness, as was the release of firmer economic data from the Eurozone that helped to support the euro against the crosses, the AUD tumbled against the GBP, losing close to 1% from where it began the session.</p> <p>&ldquo;On the Brexit front, news reports suggest there is one last push on talks between the government and Labour Party to come to some form of agreement on Brexit,&rdquo; said Rodrigo Catril, Senior FX Strategist at the National Australia Bank.</p> <p>&ldquo;Another factor helping GBP has come from EUR strength following better than expected economic data releases. The euro-area economic data were universally better than expected.&rdquo;</p> <p>Turning to May Day, it promises to be a quiet first half of the session with both Japan and Chinese markets offline for public holidays for the remainder of the week.</p> <p>On the data front, the Ai Group&rsquo;s manufacturing PMI for April and CoreLogic&rsquo;s latest Home Value Index, also for April, will be released during the session. Neither are likely to shift the dial for the Aussie dollar.</p> <p>Regionally, New Zealand Q1 unemployment data will be released at 8.45am AEST, providing a catalyst that may create short- term volatility in the NZD.</p> <p>Japanese manufacturing PMI and South Korean trade data will also arrive during the session.</p> <p>This afternoon, most attention will be on the US Fed&rsquo;s monetary policy decision. With no change in policy rates expected, all interest will likely be on the post-meeting statement and press conference with Chair Jerome Powell.</p> <p>&ldquo;We expect forward guidance to still point at rates being on hold for some time with the Committee remaining patient as it carefully monitors data releases over coming months,&rdquo; said Catril at the NAB.</p> <p>Before that event at 4am AEST, markets received manufacturing PMI reports from the UK and Canada along with ADP private sector payrolls, construction spending, EIA crude oil inventories and the ISM manufacturing PMI from the United States.</p> <p>Along with China and Japan, most of continental Europe will also be off for Labour Day holiday for May Day.</p> <p><strong>Today&rsquo;s Ranges</strong></p> <ul> <li>AUD/USD: 0.7037- 0.7056</li> <li>AUD/EUR: 0.6280 - 0.6291</li> <li>AUD/GBP: 0.5400 - 0.5412</li> <li>AUD/CNY: 4.7411 - 4.7528</li> <li>AUD/INR: 49.026 &ndash; 49.147</li> </ul> <p><strong>Announcements to Watch</strong></p> <p>Wednesday, May 1, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Belgium - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday France - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Hong Kong - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Ireland - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday South Korea - Labor Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Singapore - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Portugal - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Switzerland - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Sweden - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Norway - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Finland - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Spain - First of May</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Brazil - Labor Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday China - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Italy - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday India - Maharashtra Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Germany - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Greece - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday South Africa - Labour Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Japan - Holiday 124.1</p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) 129.2 126.0 -1.0%</p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) 3.8% 1.1% &nbsp;</p> <p>01:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0.1%</p> <p>08:45 &nbsp;&nbsp;NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1) -0.2% 0.5% 55.1</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP Manufacturing PMI (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;53.2 129K</p> <p>22:15 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD ADP Nonfarm Emp Change (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;181K 129K</p> <p>Thursday, May 2, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Japan - Holiday</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday China - Labour Day 55.3</p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;55.0 5.479M</p> <p>00:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Crude Oil Inventories &nbsp;&nbsp;1.485M &nbsp;</p> <p>04:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD FOMC Statement&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;2.50%</p> <p>04:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Fed Interest Rate Decision &nbsp;&nbsp;2.50% &nbsp;</p> <p>04:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD FOMC Press Conference&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>06:15 &nbsp;&nbsp;CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50.8</p> <p>11:45 &nbsp;&nbsp;CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;51.0 44.5</p> <p>17:55 &nbsp;&nbsp;EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;44.5 49.7</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP Construction PMI (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;50.4 &nbsp;</p> <p>21:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP BoE Inflation Report&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0.75%</p> <p>21:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) &nbsp;&nbsp;0.75% &nbsp;</p> <p>21:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>21:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>Friday, May 3, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Japan - Constitution Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday China - Labour Day 48.9</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP Services PMI (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;50.4 1.4%</p> <p>19:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.6% 196K</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;185K 3.8%</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Unemployment Rate (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;3.8% 3.8%</p> <p>Saturday, May 4, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Japan - Greenery Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday China - Labor Day 56.1</p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;57.2 56.1</p> <p>Monday, May 6, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday United Kingdom - Early May Bank Holiday</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday South Korea - Children&amp;#39;s Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Japan - Children&amp;#39;s Day</p> <p>Tuesday, May 7, 2019 0.8%</p> <p>11:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) &nbsp;&nbsp;0.2% 1.50%</p> <p>14:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision (May) &nbsp;&nbsp;1.50% 1.50%</p> <p>Wednesday, May 8, 2019 7.087M</p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) &nbsp;&nbsp;7.230M 54.3</p> <p>00:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;CAD Ivey PMI (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;51.1 1.75%</p> <p>12:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;1.75%</p> <p>Thursday, May 9, 2019 0.6%</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD PPI (MoM) (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;0.2% 0.6%</p> <p>Friday, May 10, 2019 0.2%</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q1) &nbsp;&nbsp;0.2% 1.4%</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP GDP (YoY) (Q1) &nbsp;&nbsp;1.4% 0.9%</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) 0.2% 0.1%</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;0.2% -7.2K</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;CAD Employment Change (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;1.0K -7.2K</p> <p>Monday, May 13, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Hong Kong - The day following the Birthday of the Buddha</p> <p>Tuesday, May 14, 2019 3.5%</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar) 3.5% 28.3K</p> <p>18:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;20.0K 3.1</p> <p>19:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) 0.8 &nbsp;</p> <p>21:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;BRL BCB Copom Meeting Minutes&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>Wednesday, May 15, 2019 8.5%</p> <p>12:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;6.5% -0.2%</p> <p>16:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) &nbsp;&nbsp;0.1% 1.2%</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;0.7% 1.6%</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;0.9% 0.3%</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;0.3%</p> <p>Thursday, May 16, 2019 25.7K</p> <p>11:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;AUD Employment Change (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;12.0K 1.288M</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Building Permits (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;1.300M 8.5</p> <p>22:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) 10.4 8.5</p> <p>Friday, May 17, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Norway - Constitution Day 1.4%</p> <p>19:00 &nbsp;&nbsp;EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr) &nbsp;&nbsp;1.4% 1.4%</p> <p>Sunday, May 19, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Singapore - Vesak Day</p> <p>Monday, May 20, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Canada - Victoria Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Singapore - Vesak Day 0.5%</p> <p>09:50 &nbsp;&nbsp;JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1) &nbsp;&nbsp;0.4% 0.5%</p> <p>Tuesday, May 21, 2019 &nbsp;</p> <p>11:30 &nbsp;&nbsp;AUD RBA Meeting Minutes&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>Monday, May 27, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday United States - Memorial Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday United Kingdom - Spring Bank Holiday</p> <p>Wednesday, May 29, 2019</p> <p>Holiday Sweden - Half day of trading - Early close at 13:00</p> <p>Thursday, May 30, 2019</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Switzerland - Ascension Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Sweden - Ascension Day</p> <p>All Day &nbsp;&nbsp;Holiday Norway - Ascension Day</p>

Comments (1)

    • 13/05/2019 7:18:30 PM
    • Raj

    Very Informative

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