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Maurizio-Cavaliere
Jun 06 2018

TAT FX Brief: June 18

News & Insights
TAT FX Brief: June 18
<h4 dir="ltr"><strong>RBA leaves rate unchanged</strong></h4> <blockquote> <p dir="ltr">The RBA has said its next move would be a hike, but the predictions from two months ago that it would be this year have now changed to suggest it will be some time later in 2019.</p> </blockquote> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/USD</strong></li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">Australian GDP YoY and QoQ are supporting the strength of AUD in the short term. We expect a retracement up to area 0.775 0.78 and then a new bullish movement could start for the USD.</p> <p dir="ltr">We will have important data on Employment change and Employment rate. Australia is heavily reliant on China buying its raw materials, in particular iron ore. US threatening to impose huge tariffs has the potential to slow Chinese growth, which in turn will hit the Australian economy.</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/EUR</strong></li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">In six weeks AUD has appreciated by more than 5%, and we have now reached a level in area 0.66. From here, it will be interesting to see which direction AUD will take. Without any other signs of political stability in Italy, it could give positive signs towards the Euro.</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/GBP</strong></li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">Sterling has lost significant ground against the Aussie of late. The buoyancy levels of 1.80 is gone!</p> <p dir="ltr">This is predominantly due to Sterling weakness rather than AUD strength. The Brexit situation is likely to be drawn out and problematic;&nbsp;GDP which came in at 0.1% is&nbsp;the worst data release on GDP for over five years.</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/CNY</strong></li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">Trading on important levels and a breakout 4.90 could bring prices to 4.95 in the short run. It will be important to see the Chinese industrial production of June 14th; however it will be more likely to see a retracement towards 4.85.&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/INR</strong></li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">After passing area 51, AUD is showing a greater relative strength against INR, we expect this strength to continue in the short run to area 52 where there will be a strong resistance area.</p> <p dir="ltr">Today, 6 June, in India is expected an interest rate decision, where they should remain unchanged at 6%.</p> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>Major events/data this month:*</strong></p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&rArr; Wednesday, June 6</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">11:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;AUD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">GDP (QoQ) (Q1)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">19:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;INR</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Interest Rate Decision</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; Thursday, June 7</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;CAD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Ivey PMI (May)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Crude Oil Inventories</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; Friday, June 8</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">01:15</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;CAD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">BoC Gov Poloz Speaks &nbsp;</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">09:50</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;JPY</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">GDP (QoQ) (Q1)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;CAD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Employment Change (May)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; Tuesday, June 12</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Core CPI (MoM) (May)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; Wednesday, June 13</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">PPI (MoM) (May)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; Thursday, June 14</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">04:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Fed Interest Rate Decision</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">11:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;AUD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Employment Change (May)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">12:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;CNY</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Industrial Production (YoY) (May)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">21:45</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;EUR</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Retail Sales (MoM) (May)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; Friday, June 15</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">19:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;EUR</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">CPI (YoY) (May)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; Tuesday, June 19</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Building Permits (May)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; Thursday, June 21</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Existing Home Sales (May)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">08:45</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;NZD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">GDP (QoQ) (Q1)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; Friday, June 22</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;CAD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Core CPI (MoM) (May)</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;CAD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; Tuesday, June 26</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">New Home Sales (May)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;Wednesday, June 27</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><span style="font-size:9px">*Source:&nbsp;Economic Calendar - <a href="https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/" target="_blank">investing.com</a></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Useful links:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://tat.capital/Home/FX" target="_blank">Setup FX Account</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bizcurrency1.com/GPWeb/Pages/General/Login.aspx?Style=TAT" target="_blank">FX Login</a></p> <p><a href="https://tat.capital/Blogs/Permalink/how-to-choose-an-fx-broker" target="_blank">How to choose an FX broker for your business</a></p>

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