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Maurizio-Cavaliere
Aug 08 2018

TAT FX Brief: Aug18

News & Insights
TAT FX Brief: Aug18
<h3 dir="ltr">RBA leaves rate unchanged as predicted!</h3> <blockquote> <p dir="ltr">The Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold as expected on Wednesday.&nbsp;We expect the Fed to hike rates in September and also in December.</p> </blockquote> <h4 dir="ltr"><strong>US GDP Growth is a great news, but can it continue during a Trade War?</strong></h4> <p dir="ltr">U.S. President Donald Trump&#39;s administration&nbsp;is poised to propose 25 per cent tariffs on a further $200 billion of imports, up from an initial proposal of 10 per cent.</p> <ul dir="ltr"> <li><strong>AUD/USD</strong></li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">In July, we had really strong signals from US economy&#39;s GDP +4.1% QoQ</p> <p dir="ltr">Australia&rsquo;s property slump deepened: National dwelling values dropped 0.6 per cent last month. Inflation stays low, keeping&nbsp;rate hike prospects distant.</p> <p dir="ltr">We remain bearish on AUD&nbsp;with target 0.72 by the end of the year,&nbsp;and area 0.75 might be a good area for new short positions.</p> <ul dir="ltr"> <li><strong>AUD/EUR</strong></li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">There is the risk that a trade war could raise difficult choices for Australia between its largest trade partner.</p> <p dir="ltr">Australia&#39;s exports overwhelmingly comprised of commodity items like iron ore, coal and liquefied natural gas;&nbsp;the Aussie Dollar and economy is also vulnerable to the changing whims of global investor sentiment. AUD/EUR is in trading range, and it will be important to note which direction it is going to take.</p> <ul dir="ltr"> <li><strong>AUD/GBP</strong></li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">Demand for the Australian Dollar has fallen recently, because of signs that the US Federal Reserve could be set on a path of continued interest rate hikes.</p> <p dir="ltr">Higher US interest rates mean that the US Dollar could be a more appealing currency in the future, which will conversely devalue the Australian Dollar.</p> <p dir="ltr">Global commodities are often priced in US Dollars, so there is an additional danger of the Australian mining sector facing difficulties in future. We remain slightly positive above 0.57.</p> <ul dir="ltr"> <li><strong>AUD/CNY</strong></li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">Since May, AUD has gained 7% vs CNY, and June trade surplus widens to A$1.87 bn vs forecast of A$900 mn.</p> <p dir="ltr">Chinese Industrial production in June registered YoY of 6, below the previous data of 6.8.</p> <p dir="ltr">We are bullish on AUD, even if short term, we might see a correction towards 4.90/4.95.</p> <ul dir="ltr"> <li><strong>AUD/INR</strong></li> </ul> <p dir="ltr">We are bearish in the short term, with a target in area 50. We do not expect big movement for next months on AUD/INR with a trading range between 50 and 52.</p> <p><br /> <strong>Major events/data this month:</strong></p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Wednesday, August 1, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">CB Consumer Confidence (Jul)</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">18:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Manufacturing PMI (Jul)</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:15</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Thursday, August 2, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Crude Oil Inventories</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">04:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">FOMC Statement &nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">04:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Fed Interest Rate Decision</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p>&nbsp;</p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">18:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Construction PMI (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">21:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">BoE Inflation Report &nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">21:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">BoE Interest Rate Decision (Aug)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">21:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">BoE Gov Carney Speaks &nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Friday, August 3, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">11:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;AUD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">18:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Services PMI (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Unemployment Rate (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Saturday, August 4, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9">&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td colspan="6">&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Tuesday, August 7, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">14:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;AUD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; Wednesday, August 8, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;CAD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Ivey PMI (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; Thursday, August 9, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">PPI (MoM) (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Friday, August 10, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">09:50</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;JPY</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">GDP (QoQ) (Q2)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">18:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">GDP (YoY) (Q2)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">18:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">GDP (QoQ) (Q2)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">18:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;CAD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Employment Change (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Saturday, August 11, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">All Day</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Holiday</p> </td> <td colspan="6"> <p dir="ltr">Japan - Mountain Day</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Tuesday, August 14, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">18:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">18:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Claimant Count Change (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Wednesday, August 15, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">18:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">CPI (YoY) (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Thursday, August 16, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">11:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;AUD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Employment Change (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">18:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;GBP</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Building Permits (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Friday, August 17, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">19:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;EUR</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">CPI (YoY) (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;CAD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Core CPI (MoM) (Jul)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Wednesday, August 22, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">22:30</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;CAD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> <tr> <td colspan="9"> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&rArr; </strong><strong>Thursday, August 23, 2018</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td> <p dir="ltr">00:00</p> </td> <td> <p dir="ltr">&nbsp;USD</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td> <p dir="ltr">Existing Home Sales (Jul)</p> </td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td>&nbsp;</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><span style="font-size:8px">*Source:&nbsp;Economic Calendar -&nbsp;<a href="https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/" target="_blank">investing.com</a></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Useful links:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://tat.capital/Home/FX" target="_blank">Setup FX Account</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bizcurrency1.com/GPWeb/Pages/General/Login.aspx?Style=TAT" target="_blank">FX Login</a></p> <p><a href="https://tat.capital/Blogs/Permalink/how-to-choose-an-fx-broker" target="_blank">How to choose an FX broker for your business</a></p>

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