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Jay Kumar
Apr 05 2019

Foresight currency market review - March 2019

News & Insights
Foresight currency market review - March 2019
<h4><strong>Longer term trend for AUD remains negative against major trading partners!</strong></h4> <p><strong>Summary</strong></p> <ul> <li>While AUD has made some gains against major currencies over the past one and three months, the longer-term trend has been negative</li> <li>The continued soft outlook for AUD is underpinned by weaker domestic economic data, dovish RBA and mixed outlook for commodity prices</li> <li>Volatility of AUD against JPY and Swiss Francs stand out</li> <li>The USD Index continues to display an uptrend despite the shift in Fed Reserve policy stance</li> <li>The British Pound index continues to experience heightened volatility as &lsquo;Brexit&rsquo; drama continues in UK</li> </ul> <blockquote> <p><strong>Exhibit 1.</strong> The Australian dollar index (as proxied by REER - real effective exchange rate) maintains its downward trajectory reflecting weakness against major trading partner currencies.</p> </blockquote> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2019/04/ex1.png " /></p> <ul> <li>The moving average of the real Australian dollar index highlights the continued weakness of the AUD as the exchange rate continues to decline against its major trading partners</li> <li>This bearish trend is underpinned by weak domestic economic data and dovish stance taken by the RBA</li> <li>Broader geopolitical concerns and trade wars also weighed on the AUD which is often perceived as a &lsquo;risk&rsquo;&nbsp;currency</li> </ul> <blockquote> <p><strong>Exhibit 2.</strong> Longer term performance of AUD against major currencies have been negative. Volatility against JPY and Swiss Francs stand out over the past year.</p> </blockquote> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2019/04/ex2.png " /></p> <ul> <li>The AUD has negative currency returns against all major currencies between the periods of 1 year to annualized 5 years. Across this broad-based weakness, continuous negative returns are more&nbsp;pronounced against the USD.</li> <li>This negative returns against the USD are further weakened by the high level of currency volatility between the AUD and US dollar over the past 10 years.</li> <li>The poor performance of the AUD comes on the back of weaker domestic economic data and dovish&nbsp;stance of the RBA.</li> </ul> <blockquote> <p><strong>Exhibit 3.</strong> Long term trend of the real US dollar index (REER) remains positive</p> </blockquote> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2019/04/ex3.png " /></p> <p>The US dollar Index continues its upward trajectory despite the Federal Reserve Bank taking a dovish stance last month</p> <blockquote> <p><strong>Exhibit 4.</strong>&nbsp;Uncertainty surrounding Brexit continues to weaken GBP against its major trading partners</p> </blockquote> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2019/04/ex4.png " /></p> <ul> <li>The GBP Index shows continued volatility of the currency against its major trading partners.</li> <li>This volatility is expected to continue until the confirmation of Brexit terms</li> </ul> <hr /> <p><span style="font-size:10px"><strong>Foresight Analytics - Unlocking your investment advantage</strong></span></p> <p><span style="font-size:10px"><a href="http://www.foresight-analytics.com/" target="_blank">Foresight Analytics</a> is a data-driven investment research, analytics and consulting firm. Using its&nbsp;innovative 360-degree framework and factor-based technology, Foresight provides analytical, predictive and market intelligence solutions to leading investment management companies, superannuation funds and&nbsp;wealth groups.&nbsp;</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:10px">For asset owners, Foresight solutions include quality and risk-based manager appraisal, forensic validation&nbsp;of manager skill, portfolio risk aggregation and factor-based portfolio optimisation. Foresight&rsquo;s 360-&nbsp;degree analytical framework integrates financial and extra-financial considerations and across equity and&nbsp;bond asset classes.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:10px"><strong>Foresight Disclaimer</strong><br /> The material contained in this document is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as an&nbsp;offer or a solicitation for the purchase and/or sale of any security, derivative, index, or financial instrument, nor is it advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. No allowance has been&nbsp;made for transaction costs or management fees, which would reduce investment performance. Actual&nbsp;results may differ from the reported performance. Past performance is no guarantee for future&nbsp;performance.&nbsp;</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:10px">This material is based on information that is considered to be reliable, but Foresight Analytics makes this&nbsp;information available on an &ldquo;as is&rdquo; basis without a duty to update, make warranties, express or implied,&nbsp;regarding the accuracy of the information contained herein. The information contained in this material&nbsp;should not be acted upon without obtaining advice from a licensed investment professional. Errors may&nbsp;exist in data acquired from third-party vendors, and in coding related to statistical analyses.&nbsp;</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:10px">Foresight Analytics disclaims any and all expresses or implied warranties, including, but not limited to,&nbsp;any warranties of merchantability, suitability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. This communication reflects our quantitative insights as of the date of this communication and will not&nbsp;necessarily be updated as views or information change. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:10px"><strong>Data Provider Disclaimers</strong><br /> Portions of information contained in the assessments and underlying data were sourced from Datastream,&nbsp;a Thomson Reuters Company, subject to the following: Copyright 2018 &copy; Thomson Reuters. All rights&nbsp;reserved. 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