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Andro Matugas-Barnes
Jul 06 2018

'FIFA World Cup vs FX: Who will win?' - a Tat Capital prediction

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'FIFA World Cup vs FX: Who will win?' - a Tat Capital prediction
<p>Football World Cup 2018 is creating waves, and last week, we saw&nbsp;how the&nbsp;countries fared in FX &amp; Football for <a href="https://tat.capital/Home/Permalink?slug=FX-in-the-time-of-Football-World-Cup-Round-16-predictions">Round 16</a>. &nbsp;</p> <p>The big quarter-finals start today:&nbsp;will we better our 50% prediction rate this time around?&nbsp;</p> <p>Here are our predictions:&nbsp;<img alt="wink" height="23" src="https://tat.capital/plugins/ckeditor2/plugins/smiley/images/wink_smile.png" title="wink" width="23" /></p> <h4>&nbsp;</h4> <h3><strong>Quarter-finals:</strong></h3> <h4>URUGUAY vs FRANCE</h4> <p>Cavani set to miss the quarter-finals with injury from the last match, so it&#39;s&nbsp;likely that France will have&nbsp;yet another advantage. Suarez is confident they can defend against MBappe, but&nbsp;they have another threat with Griezmann.&nbsp;</p> <p>The EUR has remained strong against the UYU, and looks to remain that way. Since the EU Summit, the Euro has strengthened across the board of major currency pairs.</p> <p><strong>&rArr; </strong><u>Prediction</u>: <strong>France</strong></p> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2018/07/Uruguay vs France.png " /></p> <h4>BRAZIL vs BELGIUM</h4> <p>Being the two of the top teams remaining, this will be one to watch!&nbsp;If Belgium plays against Brazil&nbsp;as it did against Japan in the first half of its last match, there won&#39;t be any miracle comebacks this time around. There&#39;s a chance Brazil wins this one with ease (it&#39;s still Brazil), but there&#39;s just so much talent all over the pitch on both sides.</p> <p>While our BRL forecast has been more bullish than market expectations, it will turn BRL negative in the short and medium term. The most important negative risks continue to be domestic, and the presidential election to add&nbsp;to BRL volatility.&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr; </strong><u>Prediction</u>: <strong>Belgium</strong></p> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2018/07/Brazil vs Belgium.png " /></p> <h4>SWEDEN vs ENGLAND</h4> <p>Will England maintain their confidence in the Quarter-finals? England is a hard egg to crack when it comes to the World Cup, as they are pretty unpredictable in how they will perform, but&nbsp;this is a match it should win. It has a distinct talent advantage on Sweden. However, I didn&#39;t expect Sweden to come this far and they are still here.....</p> <p>The British pound has moved sharply lower against the Swedish krona, after Sweden&rsquo;s Riksbank kept interest rates on hold as expected, but raised its inflation forecast.&nbsp;Over the last few weeks, we have seen buyers and sellers battling around the 11.75 level, which represents the GBPSEK pair&#39;s&nbsp;200-week moving average, bulls will ultimately need to reclaim this level if we are to see a continuation of the move back towards 12.50 and beyond.</p> <p>&rArr; <u>Prediction</u>: <strong>England</strong></p> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2018/07/England vs Sweden.png " /></p> <h4>RUSSIA vs CROATIA</h4> <p>The best outcome for Russia in this Quarter-final is to hold out the full match until penalty stage. Croatia has come into this quarterfinal as the favourite: being more of the aggressor and of course with Modric&#39;s skill of breaking down the middle defence will be an enjoyable lively match.&nbsp;</p> <p>Even with the World Cup inflows vs outflows on dividend payments, further geopolitical escalation is a serious short- to medium-term risk for the RUB, Russian stocks and government debt.</p> <p><strong>&rArr; </strong><u>Prediction</u>: <strong>Croatia</strong></p> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2018/07/Russia vs. Croatia.png " /></p> <h3>&nbsp;</h3> <h3><strong>Semi-finals:</strong></h3> <h4>FRANCE vs&nbsp;&nbsp;BELGIUM</h4> <p>France currently sits at 4-1 World Cup odds to win the entire tournament. With Matuidi back from suspension, we should see a very good match, especially with Lukaku, Hazard and De Bruyne leading the Red Devils attack in goals.</p> <p>With both countries trading in EUR, I believe this could be a draw ending in the ultimate penalty shootout. Looking closer to home, within their own economy: we see France&#39;s ongoing journey to repair a fundamental economic problem, while Belgium is focusing on investment opportunities in Ukraine.</p> <p><strong>&rArr; </strong><u>Prediction</u>: <strong>Belgium</strong></p> <p>(no chart)</p> <h4>ENGLAND vs&nbsp;CROATIA</h4> <p>England showed signs&nbsp;of greatness in their match with Colombia. This England team is a young, vibrant exciting team with a great attitude, but&nbsp;how far can that take them? Croatia has had some great goals in the Group stages and looks like they are likely to continue being the aggressor with Modric in the middle.</p> <p>Even with the Short GBP positions starting to perform of late, we can see HRK remaining strong throughout the World Cup. The GBP has maintained a broadly sideways trend against the EUR:&nbsp;time will tell as we come closer to Brexit developments this week.</p> <p><strong>&rArr; </strong><u>Prediction</u>: <strong>Croatia</strong></p> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2018/07/Croatia vs England.png " /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3><strong>Finals:</strong></h3> <h4>CROATIA vs&nbsp;&nbsp;BELGIUM</h4> <p>Belgium led by powerful scorers, the team has not lost a competitive match since August 2016. However, Croatia has become real contenders this World Cup through their progression by beating giants throughout. Learning from their mistakes in past matches, can the Croatian side test the Red Devils&#39; defence?</p> <p>So much volatility of late, it is going to be a close game. Looking at the charts, we can see, Croatia starting strong, but&nbsp;Belgium coming back with a late appearance. It&#39;s going to be close......</p> <p><strong>&rArr; </strong><u>Prediction</u>:&nbsp;&nbsp;The World Cup champions will be &#39;Belgium&#39;!</p> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2018/07/Croatia vs Belgium.png " /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3><strong>Alternative Final?</strong></h3> <p>With Brexit controversy swirling around, FX sees another possibility!&nbsp;</p> <h4>FRANCE vs ENGLAND</h4> <p>Hopefully, now the English Squad have overcome their doubts after beating Croatia, and see themselves as World Cup Champions, even though history does not look good for them..... Will the Cup come home?</p> <p>On the other side of the pitch, the French team, with the scorching pace and youth of Mbappe, are attacking very fluidly and stringing great passing across the midfield to their forwards, which are also converting goals!</p> <blockquote> <p>In a FX world, who would not want to see a EUR/GBP final? After the controversial Brexit and the ongoing developments, this would be a great match to watch!</p> </blockquote> <p>The GBP has staged a decent recovery against the EUR over the last week due to improved forecast data, culminating with a consensus-beating service PMI release mid-week. It appears to be successfully defending a key line of defence against the EUR. However, there could be a surge in the EUR shaping up soon, as PM May&#39;s time is running out to strike a deal with the EU on their position on Brexit.</p> <p><strong>&rArr; </strong><u>Prediction</u>: &#39;FRANCE&#39;</p> <p><img alt="" src="https://tat.capital/docs/uploads/2018/07/France vs England.png " /></p> <h5>Game set. Are you ready?&nbsp;<img alt="yes" height="23" src="https://tat.capital/plugins/ckeditor2/plugins/smiley/images/thumbs_up.png" title="yes" width="23" /></h5> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3><strong>In other FX News:</strong></h3> <p>The trade war has just begun, and the Chinese reply is going to be pretty tough! Most American&nbsp;families are caught in the middle of this tussle...</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/USD</strong></li> </ul> <p>The Aussie knocked into a new low for 2018 as risk aversion continues to pummel&nbsp;broader markets. Given its large exposure to the Chinese economy, and with trade war&nbsp;uncertainty set to continue in the next months, the Australian Dollar is at the centre of&nbsp;the crossfire</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/EUR</strong></li> </ul> <p>We had a strong support in area 0.62 and price moved up again. The German economy&nbsp;(Manufacturer PMI and IFO Index) prices might move up again towards area 0.65</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/GBP</strong></li> </ul> <p>Some good sign from manufacturing PMI (54.4), Services PMI (54), GDP QoQ 1%. Some good&nbsp;news is coming in from mining in WA and this might give some boost to AUD</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/CNY</strong></li> </ul> <p>We had an important resistance at 4.9 and we had a retracement towards 4.75. Currently, we&nbsp;are bullish on AUD (retail Sales and employment change are important data for AUD) and&nbsp;CNY GDP and Industrial production. We might see some strength coming towards AUD&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li><strong>AUD/INR&nbsp;</strong></li> </ul> <p>Indian Central bank has hiked interests rates to 6.25% and since the beginning of the year, the&nbsp;rate is moving in the trading range of 49.8 and 50.8. and we are bullish on AUD towards the area</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3><strong>Major events/data this month:</strong></h3> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Monday,&nbsp;July 2</p> <p>09:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturers Index&nbsp;(Q2)</p> <p>09:50 JPY Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers&nbsp;Index (Q2)</p> <p>11:45 CNY&nbsp;Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)</p> <p>18:30 GBP&nbsp;Manufacturing PMI (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Tuesday, July 3</p> <p>Holiday&nbsp;United States - Independence Day - Early close at 13:00</p> <p>00:00 USD&nbsp;ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>14:30 AUD&nbsp;RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jul)&nbsp;</p> <p>18:30 GBP&nbsp;Construction PMI (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Wednesday, July 4</p> <p>All Day Holiday&nbsp;United States - Independence Day</p> <p>11:30 AUD&nbsp;Retail Sales (MoM) (May)&nbsp;</p> <p>18:30 GBP&nbsp;Services PMI (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Thursday, July 5</p> <p>22:15 USD ADP Nonfarm Employment&nbsp;Change (Jun)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Friday, July 6</p> <p>00:00 USD&nbsp;ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 USD&nbsp;Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 USD&nbsp;Unemployment Rate (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 CAD&nbsp;Employment Change (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Saturday, July 7</p> <p>00:00 CAD&nbsp;Ivey PMI (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Tuesday, July 10</p> <p>18:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (May)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Wednesday, July 11</p> <p>00:00 USD&nbsp;JOLTs Job Openings (May)&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 USD&nbsp;PPI (MoM) (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Thursday, July 12</p> <p>00:00 CAD&nbsp;BoC Interest Rate Decision&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 USD&nbsp;Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Monday, July 16</p> <p>All Day Holiday&nbsp;Japan - Marine Day</p> <p>12:00 CNY&nbsp;GDP (YoY) (Q2)&nbsp;</p> <p>12:00 CNY&nbsp;Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 USD&nbsp;Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 USD&nbsp;Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Tuesday, July 17</p> <p>08:45 NZD&nbsp;CPI (QoQ) (Q2)&nbsp;</p> <p>18:30 GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus (May)&nbsp;</p> <p>18:30 GBP&nbsp;Claimant Count Change (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Wednesday, July 18</p> <p>18:30 GBP&nbsp;CPI (YoY) (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>19:00 EUR&nbsp;CPI (YoY) (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>22:30 USD&nbsp;Building Permits (Jun)&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&rArr;&nbsp;</strong>Thursday, July 19</p> <p>11:30 AUD&nbsp;Employment Change (Jun)</p> <p><span style="font-size:9px">*Source:&nbsp;Economic Calendar -&nbsp;<a href="https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/" target="_blank">investing.com</a></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Useful links:</strong></p> <p><a href="https://tat.capital/Home/FX" target="_blank">Setup FX Account</a>&nbsp;|&nbsp;<a href="https://www.bizcurrency1.com/GPWeb/Pages/General/Login.aspx?Style=TAT" target="_blank">FX Login</a></p> <p><a href="https://tat.capital/Blogs/Permalink/how-to-choose-an-fx-broker" target="_blank">How to choose an FX broker for your business</a></p>

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